Future demographic and agricultural change

This work package will build on the unique scientific evidence base, from the field data, which will form a basis of understanding and anticipating changes in zoonotic disease burdens and recommending effective interventions. This will involve a detailed study of economic, social, demographic, genetic, and epidemiological drivers and the way that these combine to produce an overall burden of disease and risk of disease outbreaks. We will develop projections of demographic and agricultural changes, particularly trends towards the commercialization and intensification of livestock production, and use the risk network model to estimate consequent changes in zoonotic disease risk and economic burden.

In one recent but relatively small-scale study, we found 14 different zoonoses circulating in humans and their livestock. In addition, we expect this burden to change in the future as a result of continuing changes to livestock production systems in Kenya and elsewhere in order to satisfy increased demand for livestock products – again, we have good evidence of this taking place. There is therefore a pressing need for good surveillance of zoonoses in order to establish their true burden and how that is changing.

This work package will investigate the relationship between the various drivers and risks of zoonotic diseases in the past 10-20 years and fast forward in the next 10-12 years by using:

  • A value chain approach, demographic and consumption models, and scenario analysis;
  • Studies of livestock commodity value chains and market connectivity;
  • Investigations of trends in supply, based on the farm level data;
  • Forward projections of population growth, urbanisation, land use, consumption patterns and changing demand for animal source foods; and
  • Model change in zoonotic disease burdens risks as production systems change under different modelled scenarios

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